Via Forbes.com:
We are just over three months out from the international debut of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. That means I’ll probably do a three-part “pessimistic,” “optimistic” and “realistic” box office prediction series sometime next week, just as I did with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. But to be honest, I have absolutely no idea how well this Walt Disney release is going to perform this December, partially because there has never really been a movie quite like Rogue One on this scale.
For the record, this does not mean to suggest that Rogue One won’t be, barring unforeseen variables, a big hit this year. The trailers are great, the fans are psyched, and the there is little reason to presume it won’t clean house this December. But how big of a hit it will be is where the fun lies. Because this is arguably something of an unprecedented release, at least in modern time. First of all, the very notion of a spin-off to a blockbuster movie isn’t as prevalent as you might expect.
Okay, sure, you’ve got honest spin-offs like This Is 40, Get Him to the Greek, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones or Supergirl. You’ve got the “spin-off that’s a sequel if we’re truly being honest with each other” stuff like U.S. Marshals and The Huntsman: Winter’s War. You’ve got a few recent animated spin-offs (Puss N Boots, Penguins of Madagascar, and Minions). That’s not a remotely comprehensive list, but it’s not like Lucasfilm was looking at Planes or Get Smart’s Bruce & Lloyd: Out of Control when running the numbers.
Rogue One can best be described as a prequel to Star Wars: A New Hope, but far be it for anyone to mention the word “prequel” in connection with the Star Wars films. It’s a “before A New Hope” story that involves a new cast of characters along with explicit narrative connections to the Star Wars world and at least one or two beloved old-school characters showing up rapturous audience applause. Oh, what I’d give for even a deleted scene where Darth Vader waves at the audience as he strolls onscreen complete with audience applause.
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